Research Digest How do operational losses affect the stock prices of energy firms? 

In The market reaction to operational risk events in the energy sector, published in the Annals of Operations Research (2023), Panagiotis Dontis-Charitos and his co-authors offer a systematic study of the impact of operational losses on the stock prices of energy firms.

Why study this

Operational risk is particularly important in the energy sector, where damages can be massive. Beyond economic losses, damages can include environmental contamination, personal injury, loss of human life and reputational harm, as the example of the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon spill shows. Yet little is known about the economic impact of operational risk events. The researchers fill this void by examining the market reaction of energy firms to a large and diverse sample of operational loss events.

Findings

  • The researchers constructed a unique sample of 452 international operational loss events announced from 1996 to 2021 spanning seven risk categories. 
  • The cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) were negative within a 5-day period around the announcement of operational losses.
  • Looking at the effects in different regions, negative returns were observed for operational losses announced in Asia, Europe, Canada and South America, but in Africa, Australia and the United Kingdom the excess returns were insignificant. The observed differences may be due to differences in market expectations. 
  • The researchers observed that firms in the US reported operational losses smaller in magnitude than those in other regions, suggesting that US firms may have more robust risk management processes and/or better access to insurance markets, which may allow them to better mitigate the negative impact of operational losses.
  • Large relative losses produce negative and significant excess returns, whereas small relative losses have no impact on the stock prices of announcing firms, possibly because small losses seem to be considered as part of the business by investors, who have probably already priced in those risks.   
  • Regarding industry groups, they observed negative and significant abnormal returns for the Electric and Gas industry group, but they are insignificant for the Oil and Gas companies.
  • Analysis based on risk category shows that only the business disruption and system failures, the client, products and business practices, and the damage to physical assets categories produce negative and significant excess returns.  

Examples such as the Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969, the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident in 1979, the Exxon Valdez tanker spill in 1989, the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, and the nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011, highlight the economic impact that operational risk events can have on the energy industry.

Key insight

In contrast with previous studies in the energy sector, this study reveals that markets react negatively to operational loss announcements by energy companies. 

Impact

These findings are useful for energy companies to integrate operational risk management strategies into their sustainability efforts, and to minimize the negative impact of operational losses on their financial performance and stock prices. They can also aid regulators in designing measures to mitigate the broader impact of these losses on the economy and society.

Final takeaway

Overall, operational losses have a negative impact on the stock prices of energy companies, though different types of industry groups and operational risk categories trigger different reactions, with the electric industry group and the damage risk category generating the largest abnormal returns across all groups and categories.

Authors


Panagiotis Dontis-Charitos - ESCP Business School Panagiotis Dontis-Charitos Associate Professor of Finance at ESCP Business School (London campus)
Sofia Kalatha Sofia Kalatha Postdoctoral Researcher and adjunct lecturer at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece)
Kyriaki Kosmidou Kyriaki Kosmidou Professor in Banking Finance at the School of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece)
Kostas Andriosopoulos Kostas Andriosopoulos Professor in Finance & Energy Economics at Audencia Business School (France)

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