How to recognise and manage Political risk in turbulent contexts: a multi-level perspective.

Thesis Defence
How to recognise and manage Political risk in turbulent contexts: a multi-level perspective.

Lorenzo Coronati will publicly defend his thesis.

September 8, 2025
17:00-18:00 (CET)
Campus ESCP Paris Montparnasse, Amphi 1028

Attend the defence

Abstract

The research provides an overview of the conceptualisation of risk, with a more specific focus on political risk. It includes the analysis of key concepts, reviewing gaps in the literature, and exploiting research opportunities aimed at filling those gaps, thereby contributing to the enhancement of managerial decision-making in complex business environments with risk. The study provides an analysis of Nigeria, the focal country of study, with an emphasis on risk and management dynamics within that country. Following and building on a literature review, interviews and inductive analysis of case studies, offers three papers: the first, "An Exploration of Political Risks", second, "Why Are Leaders Not Taking Political Risk Seriously Enough? Analysis of the Phenomenon from a Psychological Perspective", and third, "How Cognitive Processes and Decision- making Processes Support the Leader's Ability to Identify and Respond to Unpredictable Events through the Interaction of Effectuation and Bricolage Logic".

Paper 1: The author uses management concepts to describe political risk as a dynamic and multidimensional phenomenon, influenced by external factors. The paper examines how several risks manifest effects in Nigeria, particularly through corruption, regulatory changes, and social instability, demonstrating how the company managed these risks through structured systems and frameworks.

Paper 2: This paper applies decision-making concepts to identify why leaders often fail to recognise political risks. It attributes this failure to various cognitive biases, emotional dynamics, and environmental influences that shape decision-making. The paper is structured around a single case study, which illustrates how decision-making tools enabled managers to anticipate and manage risk effectively.

Paper 3: This paper applies entrepreneurship concepts to examine how decision-making processes influence managers' ability to cope with political risks. It draws on multiple case studies from different industries. The thesis highlights the value of flexible and adaptive decision-making logics, highlighting effectuation and bricolage logics, in navigating Nigeria's turbulent business environment.

Jury